USPHL NCDC Draft Day has come and gone...

Needless to say, my kid wasn't selected.

Well, unless my kid ignored a phone call, email, or text which, honestly, wouldn't be that unusual.

He "misses" texts from his own parents with typical teenager-like prowess...

And, really, the draft took place during school hours...so he probably shouldn't have been looking at this phone anyway...

Seriously, though, I didn't expect him to be selected.

He's not "there" yet...but I will say that this past season's experiences have taught me a lot about how things work when you're "in the mix" to be drafted. Dots are starting to connect.

One thing that often confused me with former teammates and training partners that have been drafted, whether in the NCDC Draft or another junior league draft, was their overall draft selection position.

So often, the pick associated with the players seemed backwards. All these first round picks were kinda second line guys, role players even on their regular season teams...but the studs were getting picked way later.

Like, a hundred picks later...

Always left me confused when you actually know the players personally and their on-ice capabilities.

But not anymore -- most junior leagues that hold drafts do it in "phases" where only certain birth years are eligible in each phase.

The younger players are usually part of the first phase.

Over on my side of the continent, the east coast, the first round or two are reserved for 15 and 16 year olds. (WHL drafts 14 year olds?!)

Like, teams are rolling the dice on U16 players hoping they luck out and are able secure the rights to a player that'll be a stud when they're 19 and 20.

So, those rounds aren't necessarily about skill or performance...they're more about ceiling and development potential.

That's why you see kids with maybe 7 goals on the season getting selected in the top round.

They might not be a powerhouse TODAY and might have only been a bit player on their own roster this past season...but they have all the pieces in place to be a stud down the road.

Think...the kid that's already 6-1 and clearly still growing and getting better and better. Teams use a pick on those guys...even though there's just barely over a 0% chance they'll actually make the team this coming September.

Even for a super skilled 16 year old, it's a struggle to hang with rosters overflowing with 20 year olds.

Saw that first hand this past season -- absolute studs on my son's roster getting single shifts per period playing in a handful of U20 games and hardly looking like studs.

They're "prospects".

It's a "futures" draft. Some leagues even call it that!

Exact same thing occurs in the NHL Entry draft -- every guy drafted in the first round that doesn't "make the show" had all of the traits in place to be a superstar.

Teams are gambling...and for NHL level draftees, there's a pretty solid chance it's not that much of a gamble.

I used to work for the Rangers -- Hugh Jessiman is considered a colossal bust. He was selected 12th overall by the New York Rangers in 2003 and you've probably never even heard his name...but if you'd seen him as an 18 year old, a true freshman playing D1 hockey, it was a solid gamble for Glen Sather and the New York Rangers.

He was a top prospect, without a doubt.

The second "phase" of these junior drafts are where the teams are permitted to select 17, 18, and 19 year olds.

It's not that these players are late bloomers -- far from it... These are the players that have a solid shot to make the roster for the start of the season in a few months -- they're ready to take a regular shift.

And this is the root of why I've always found junior draft positions so perplexing.

Marty's 15 years old and got picked 6th and Doug got picked 104th...but Doug, turning 17, is obviously the superior player...

And then in September, most hockey parents are under the impression that Marty was a bust cause he's back playing U16 again...

But that's not the case -- Doug is for NOW. He's nasty. He's 6-2, 200lbs, full beard, and somehow missing a tooth already even though the cage is still on.

Marty is more of a gamble for the future. Super high likelihood, by age 18 or 19, he'll be the superior player.

Right now? He's nasty playing his age level, doesn't have his license, braces are set to come off next month, and he's still filling out.

On the ice, he totally blends into the background when playing with older and more experienced players.

High level prospect at this point that a team is trying to lock in for 15 months where they essentially "own" your rights as a player so no one else can pluck you until AFTER the next draft has already passed.

See the difference?

So, like, don't be like me and assume the 146th pick has 145 players out there that are better than he is -- that's not the reality in junior drafts.

And the kid selected 12th isn't actually the 12th best player around even though they so often walk around like they actually are. Super deceiving.

Oh yeah, and going back to my comments in the past about NEVER providing your height and weight on an Elite Prospects page -- or even for a bantam level league roster -- unless it'll work in your favor...pretty sure the kids drafted over the past week or two that were listed as 5-2, 105lbs, are actually more like 5-8, 150lbs now.

Lots of iffy statistical information out there all on it's own...do your best not to add to it yourself!

The other part about junior league drafts that used to confuse me is why, in the deeper rounds, you see teams skipping their pick or passing.

I was about to wrap this thing up without even mentioning it cause I feel like it's common knowledge but...it's not. It's confusing if you're just recently coming up on stuff like this.

Why would a team "pass"? Sometimes even in the second round?! That doesn't make any sense!

So here's how it works.

Every league is different and has varying roster rules an limitations.

Trying to keep it really simple, let's say our fictious Amazing Advanced Aquatic Adept Aardvarks of Awesomeness Hockey League (AAAAHL, for short) has 15 teams in it and we're gonna have a 7 round draft each year based on the team's reversed standings during the prior season.

So...105 new players will be drafted into the league each year.

Teams are allowed to dress 18 skaters per game and carry another 7 players that will be healthy scratches.

Doing the math, 15 teams with 25 rostered skaters means there are 375 players in the league, no more, no less, between the ages of 16 and 20 -- so a five year span based on birth year.

See where I'm going yet?

If 105 new kids come in to the league each year, healthy scratch or not...it only takes four years until every team is over the roster limit. 105 players x 4 years = 420.

Can't have 420 players in the 375 player league.

And, technically, since the league, in theory, has 5 distinct birth years within it, it quickly lands in a place where there are 150 more players in the mix than permitted.

And so, when teams hit their roster limit...they pass on draft picks. They're full.

Multiple teams in the league have 23 skaters on the roster already lined up that are over 18 years old. They only have two open roster spots to fill in a 7 round draft full of 15 year olds.

Get it now?

I'm over simplifying it here...in most leagues, teams have a "protected list" that extends beyond the allowable roster limit... It's a limit on how many players each team can carry -- and most teams are already up against that number well in advance of the annual draft.

These teams have general managers just like professional teams.

They're tasked with putting together the most competitive team they can while also filling the cabinets with a few highly touted prospects for the future all within the confines the league allows.

They draft until they reach the maximum allowable number of players, strategically passing as needed to preserve flexibility.

Way more complicated than youth hockey where you're either just taking everyone that shows up or picking names off a tryout registration list.

Hoping some of the older player hockey parents find this insightful!

Oh, and congrats to all of the players selected!

Every single one of them was selected for a reason -- own it at main camp later this off-season!

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Agree? Disagree? Let me know -- I love the feedback from all angles!

Chris Rutsch

Hockey Dad

Year round, I spend a significant amount of time and money transporting my three boys to and from freezing cold ice rinks. Not because I expect them to make it to the NHL but because I know the rigorous youth hockey experience will serve them well in the future.